Today is the day that Microsoft officially ends support for Windows XP. The media has picked up on it, and are covering it with their usual sober perspective and restraint.

If you are a reader of this website, you already knew well in advance that this was coming. I covered it in detail this past January, and the information in that previous post still applies, so please check it out if you need a refresher. But I’ll take this opportunity to provide a quick summary for you and also tip you off about how Microsoft is working overtime to scare everyone (bless their hearts).

Here is the situation: As of today, Microsoft will no longer provide updates to the operating system to patch newly discovered security vulnerabilities. This means that, in the future, if someone discovers a new flaw in Windows XP, Microsoft will not fix it.

Your risk is no greater than it was yesterday, assuming you have applied all currently available Windows updates. Even if you haven’t, those existing updates will remain available for download.

You will still be protected from viruses as long as you have an antivirus program installed. Even Microsoft’s free Security Essentials will continue to get updates until July 2015.

That’s why I’m saying panic is unwarranted at this point. Unfortunately, Microsoft has complicated things in their efforts to “get the word out.” They’ve sent out an update that causes Windows XP to pop up this friendly message.

At least you can click the check box to make it go away. However, if you have Security Essentials as your antivirus program, it now pops up a nag message as well.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like there’s a way to stop this message from appearing. Microsoft may disable it in a future update to Security Essentials, but for now it looks like we’re stuck with it unless you replace Security Essentials with another antivirus program. Again, I discussed these options in the January post. Since Security Essentials will continue to get updates into July 2015, I wouldn’t bother replacing it unless the popup really bothers you.

Now, let’s talk about the future.

Estimates are that about 25-30 percent of all PCs still run Windows XP. That’s a big fat target for people who have nothing better to do than hack away at things until they break. The chances are 100% that someone will figure out a way to compromise something in Windows XP. What we can’t predict is how serious it will be or how long it will take.

If I were really cynical, I might even suggest that it would be in Microsoft’s best interest to develop some bit of malware that would render XP unusable. But I don’t think they’re that evil. Yet.

The bad guys are hard at work trying to break everything else as well. Windows 7 and 8, networking software, routers, you name it. The difference is that as long as support continues for these products, someone will be able to fix the problems as they are discovered.

There is no such thing as a computer, tablet, or smartphone that can’t be hacked. As soon as you connect to the Internet, you are at risk. And without an Internet connection, these devices just aren’t very useful any more, especially as more and more services move to the cloud.

So the same rules apply whether you’re using Windows XP or anything else. Keep your important data backed up. Keep your security software up to date. And try not to do anything stupid online.

And for now, don’t panic.

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The twilight of Windows XP

It’s been a good run, but the end is nigh.

On April 8, 2014, Microsoft will withdraw extended support for Windows XP, meaning that they will stop providing security updates for download on this date. They’ve threatened to pull the plug a few times already, but it appears they really mean it this time.

I expect third-party software updates will continue to be available for a while, so programs like Java and Adobe Flash will still get patches. But vulnerabilities in Windows itself will no longer be addressed. And I just found out that the free Microsoft Security Essentials antivirus software will be withdrawn for XP.

So what does that mean for you if you still have Windows XP on your computer?

I believe it depends on how you use your computer. If your PC is your livelihood — if you use it for work or to support a home-based business, you should start formulating an upgrade strategy. As I have bemoaned many times in the past, there is no direct upgrade path from Windows XP to Windows 7 or 8; you can’t just pop in an upgrade disk and install a new version of Windows without wiping out your current installation. So if you want to keep your current computer hardware, you would have to copy all your personal data to an external drive, install the new version of Windows, migrate your data back, and then reinstall all your programs.

It may therefore be time to consider a new PC with Windows 7 or 8 already installed. This way, you can migrate your data and programs at a more leisurely pace, while you still have your old PC available. This is how I did it.

However, if your PC usage is more of a hobby — if you use it primarily for e-mail, web browsing, or to play the occasional game, I don’t see any reason to undertake an upgrade right now. Your computer won’t suddenly stop working on April 8. You may be able to get by just fine on Windows XP for the foreseeable future. But you will need to address your antivirus protection, particularly if you are using the free Security Essentials. AV utilities from other vendors will continue to provide protection even if Microsoft no longer does.

If you want to stay with a free AV solution, Avast is a highly recommended option. AVG also has a free version that is decent.

If you’d like the additional security and support of a paid AV program, I’ve been really happy with Norton Internet Security and have switched to using it on all of my home PCs. For some years, Norton was kind of lost in the wilderness and became bloated, slow, and annoying. But Symantec got its act together and the latest versions are pretty slick. If you do choose Norton, save a few bucks and order it from Amazon.

By the way, I am still recommending Windows 7 over 8. Even though the 8.1 version addresses a lot of Windows 8’s shortcomings, it’s still a major adjustment for people used to the XP interface. You will find it much easier to adapt to Windows 7. It’s harder to find, but it’s still available. And while Microsoft is waffling on the cutoff dates for Windows 7, at this point the extended support is supposed to be provided until January, 2020. By then, Windows 9 or 10 should be available, and maybe Microsoft will get one of those right.

UPDATE 1/17/14: Well, Microsoft is backtracking again. They must have gotten an earful from customers, so they have announced that Security Essentials for XP will continue to get updates into July of 2015. Other reports are coming in that Microsoft has been forced to admit (at least to itself) that Windows 8 is a flop, and the company is already planning Windows 9 for 2015. Grab your popcorn and stay tuned.